Centre for Research on Globalisation
Centre de recherche sur la mondialisation



by David Arnott

http://www.ipb.org/web/index.php , 7  April 2003
www.globalresearch.ca   8  April 2003

The URL of this article is: http://globalresearch.ca/articles/ARN304A.html

Iraqi resistance to the military advance, and growing anger in the Arab street (Gulf States particularly vulnerable) suggest that the scenarios for a protracted and wider conflict must be examined seriously. Some of these envisage rising oil prices and a global economic downturn -- see the scenarios below, notably those constructed by senior Yale economist William Nordhaus in October 2002.

The links below cover some of the economic discussion. I have also included documents which may not contain economic analysis, but have implications for mid- and long-term economic and humanitarian developments. The division of the material into Motivations, Consequences etc. should not be taken tooseriously, since many items fall into several categories.

There is a serious gap in the literature: I have seen no projections of the global economic and humanitarian impact under the various scenarios -- for example, what would happen to oil-importing Asian countries such as China, India, Japan, Thailand, if oil went to $80 per barrel and stayed there for 2 years?

The documents are in reverse chronological order within each section.

Please email URLs or actual texts of any other relevant documents/updates to me at [email protected]

David Arnott (for the International Peace Bureau)

8 April 2003


These contain multiple documents, some of which may also be listed under "Individual items". Check them from time to time for new items and updates.

Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq (CASI) Assessments of the likely humanitarian and economic consequences of war on Iraq http://www.casi.org.uk/info/consequences.html

Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA) Various analyses by Steven Kosiak http://www.csbaonline.org/1Latest_from_CSBA/Latest_from_CSBA.htm

CNN Money A good place to check how the markets are reacting to the war, and the archives have some very useful articles on the economic aspects of the war. http://money.cnn.com/

Council on Foreign Relations, Iraq Resource Center - Iraq: Costs of War Selected Readings. Scroll up and down for related articles http://www.cfr.org/reg_index.php?id=6|35||1#11

Economist Intelligence Unit One or two relevant articles accessible to the unsubscribed http://www.eiu.com

Economists Allied for Arms Reduction (ECAAR) Half a dozen useful articles http://www.ecaar.org

Forbes An influential business magazine which seems to downplay the mid- or long-term risks (but perhaps my impression is based on too narrow a survey) http://www.forbes.com

National Association for Business Economics (NABE) Economic Costs of the War A dozen or so links to serious analyses. "There is considerable ongoing debate on what the cost would be for the war and subsequent rebuilding of Iraq. NABE will use this page to post links toany estimates we find online. NABE does not endorse or oppose any of these estimates, and will link to any that we find that amount to more than justoff-the-cuff opinions or posturings. If you know of any online estimates that we haven't posted here, let the webmaster know" http://www.nabe.com/publib/warcost.html

Economic motivations

Another war will surely pull us out of recession! http://politicalhumor.about.com/library/images/bliraqrecession.htm
http://money.cnn.com/2003/03/28/news/companies/Halliburton/index.htm   Halliburton gets a head start Mark Gongloff,

Halliburton out of the running March 31, 2003 CNN Money Dick Cheney's former employer won't have lead role in reconstructing Iraq...NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Halliburton, the energy and construction company once run by Vice President Dick Cheney, is no longer in the running for a $600 million contract to rebuild post-war Iraq, according to the United States Agency for International Development.


CNN/Money March 26, 2003 Help wanted: Firm once headed by Cheney was gearing up to rebuild Iraq before war started http://money.cnn.com/2003/03/26/news/economy/halliburton_early/index.htm

Bush's deep reasons for war on Iraq: oil, petrodollars and the OPEC Euro question Peter Dale Scott Updated 13 March 2003 "As the United States made preparations for war with Iraq, White House Press Secretary Ari Fleischer, on 2/6/03, again denied to US journalists that the projected war had "anything to do with oil." <1> He echoed Defense Minister Donald Rumsfeld, who on 11/14/02 told CBS News that "It has nothing to do with oil, literally nothing to do with oil."&" A wealth of good links http://ist-socrates.berkeley.edu/~pdscott/iraq.html

The Real Reasons for the Upcoming War With Iraq: W. Clark January 2003 (last revised 6 March) "A Macroeconomic and Geostrategic Analysis of the Unspoken Truth& Although completely suppressed by the U.S. media and government, the answer to the Iraq enigma is simple yet shocking -- it is an oil currency war. The real reason for this upcoming war is this administration's goal of preventing further Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) momentum towards the euro as an oil transaction currency standard" http://www.ratical.org/ratville/CAH/RRiraqWar.html

Oil, Currency and the War on Iraq Cóilín NunanFeasta March 2003 The war against the euro (following W. Clarkss argument) http://www.feasta.org/documents/papers/oil1.htm

The New Oil Order Michael Renner Foreign Policy in Focus February 14, 2003 Washington's War on Iraq is the Lynchpin to Controlling Persian Gulf Oil.  Only in the most direct sense is the Bush administrations Iraq policy directed against Saddam Hussein. In contrast to all the loud talk about terrorism, weapons of mass destruction, and human rights violations, very little is being said about oil. The administration has been tight-lipped about its plans for a post-Saddam Iraq and has repeatedly disavowed any interest in the countrys oil resources. But press reports indicate that U.S. officials are considering a prolonged occupation of Iraq after their war to topple Saddam Hussein. It is likely that a U.S.-controlled Iraq will be the linchpin of a new order in the world oil industry. Indeed, a war against Iraq may well herald a major realignment of the Middle East power balance... http://www.corpwatch.org/issues/PID.jsp?articleid=5529

Statement by Ralph Nader about Oil and the War Against Iraq 4 February 2003 "Despite well-known ties to Big Oil, Bush Administration officials have managed to keep a straight face as they insist that the drive to war against Iraq is motivated only by an effort to eliminate weapons of mass destruction and establish democracy. Tomorrow we'll see what evidence Secretary of State Powell presents to the United Nations. It is not credible that there would be such a strong push for war if there were no oil in Iraq. Oil is power and this is in significant measure a struggle over that power" http://www.citizenworks.org/admin/press/feb4-rn.php

The Coming War With Iraq: Deciphering the Bush Administration's Motives Michael T. Klare Author of Resource Wars: the New Landscape of Global Conflict, Foreign Policy In Focus Adviser and former IPS Fellow. Foreign Policy In Focus January 16, 2003  ."In their public pronouncements, President Bush and has associates haveadvanced three reasons for going to war with Iraq and ousting Saddam Hussein: (1) to eliminate Saddams WMD arsenals; (2) to diminish the threat of international terrorism; and (3) to promote democracy in Iraq and the surrounding areas. These are, indeed, powerful motives for going to war. But are they genuine?Klare examines these motives, finds them unsatisfactory&So, if concern over WMD proliferation, or the reduction of terrorism, or a love of democracy do not explain the administrations determination to oust Saddam Hussein, what does? I believe that the answer is a combination of three factors, all related to the pursuit of oil and the preservation of America's status as the paramount world power" PDF (72K) http://www.fpif.org/pdf/gac/0301warreasons.pdf

Oil in Iraq: the heart of the Crisis James A. Paul Global Policy Forum December, 2002 Oil is at the heart of the crisis that leads towards a US war against Iraq. For more than a hundred years, major powers have battled to control this enormous source of wealth and strategic power. The major international oil companies, headquartered in the United States and the United Kingdom, are keen to regain control over Iraqs oil, lost with the nationalization in 1972. Few outside the industry understand just how high the stakes in Iraq really are and how much the history of the world oil industry is a history of power, national rivalry and military force& http://www.globalpolicy.org/security/oil/2002/12heart.htm

Iraq: the Struggle for Oil James A. Paul Executive Director, Global Policy Forum August, 2002 (revised December, 2002) Iraq possesses the world's second largest proven oil reserves, currently estimated at 112.5 billion barrels, about 11% of the world total and its gas fields are immense as well. Many experts believe that Iraq has additional undiscovered oil reserves, which might raise the total well beyond 250 billion barrels when serious prospecting resumes, putting Iraq closer to Saudi Arabia and far above all other oil producing countries. Iraqs oil is of high quality and it is very inexpensive to produce, making it one of the worlds most profitable oil sources. Oil companies hope to gain production rights over these rich fields of Iraqi oil, worth hundreds of billions of dollars. In the view of an industry source it is a boom waiting to happen.& http://www.globalpolicy.org/security/oil/2002/08jim.htm

Economic consequences

Scenarios Most of these are studies which look at the economic consequences of various war scenarios, typically "benign", "intermediate"and "worst case". Some restrict their scope to the United States economy; others look largely at military costs, while others are restricted to costs incurred in Iraq and the immediate region. Some are short articles, while others are large, multiple documents. Multiple documents, some of which have updates, are dated by the main document and are given upper case titles (to group the documents, not to indicate superiority)  

Analysis of the Administration's FY 2003 Supplemental Request for the Warwith Iraq Steven Kosiak Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA) March 31, 2003 On March 25, 2003, the Bush Administration submitted a $74.7 billion fiscal year (FY) 2003 supplemental appropriations request to Congress &

http://www.csbaonline.org/4Publications/Archive/U.20030331.Analysis_of_FY03_ Supplemental/U.20030331.Analysis_of_FY03_Supplemental.pdf

Global Financial Stability Report: Market Developments and Issues (Chapter 3) "The Risk of War and emerging Market Vulnerabilities International Monetary Fund 26 March 2003 (Use the Acrobat Find function to search for Box 3.1) http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/GFSR/2003/01/pdf/chp3.pdf

War in Iraq versus Containment: Weighing the Costs Steven J. Davis, Kevin M. Murphy and Robert H. Topel 20 March 2003 This paper argues that war on Iraq would be considerably cheaper than continued containment and of economic benefit for the people of Iraq. It works better with Internet Explorer than Netscape. pdf (255K) 20 pages http://gsbwww.uchicago.edu/fac/steven.davis/research/War%20in%20Iraq%20versu s%20Containment,%20Weighing%20the%20Costs%20(March%202003).pdf

The Hidden Costs of War Fourth Freedom Forum William D. Hartung 14 March 2003 Important analysis. Hartung also examines the Nordhaus, CSIS and several other studies. http://www.fourthfreedom.org/php/p-index.php?hinc=Hartung_report.hinc   (overview/summary html) http://www.fourthfreedom.org/pdf/Hartung_exec_summary.pdf

(Executivesummary - pdf) http://www.fourthfreedom.org/pdf/Hartung_report.pdf

(full text -pdf)

 Iraq: The Day After Report of an Independent Task Force on Post-Conflict Iraq Sponsored by the Council on Foreign Relations (Uncorrected proofs) Thomas R. Pickering and James R. Schlesinger, Co-Chairs Eric P. Schwartz, Project Director March 2003 (?) pdf (296K) Not so much scenario-building, but with important economic implications. http://www.cfr.org/pdf/Iraq_DayAfter_TF.pdf

Potential cost of a war with Iraq and its post-war occupation Steven M. Kosiak Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments 25 February 2003 "This backgrounder provides a range of estimates related to the direct military costs of a war with Iraq and the post-war occupation of the country..."


Saddam's other weapon of mass destruction: the potential economic fallout from a war in Iraq. Vincent Cable MP BASIC, ISIS & Saferworld January 30, 2003. An article focussing mainly on the impact for oil producion and oil markets, by the Liberal Democrat spokesman for for Trade and Industry. http://www.basicint.org/iraqconflict/Pubs/Web%20Notes/WN310103-4.PDF

The future of oil in Iraq: scenarios and implications RIIA briefing paper Valerie Marcel Royal Institute for International Affairs December 2002

http://www.riia.org/pdf/research/sdp/The%20Future%20of%20Oil%20In%20Iraq%20M arcel%20Dec%202002.pdf

The Economic Costs of a War in Iraq: The Negative Scenario By Dean Baker and Mark Weisbrot Center for Economic and Policy Research December 9, 2002 "This paper examines the potential economic costs of a war with Iraq in a scenario in which the war is not over quickly. It follows loosely from the negative scenario developed in a recent study by William Nordhaus. The paper discusses several ways in which a war can impose large economic costs, that have not been seriously considered in policy debates to date" http://www.cepr.net/Costs%20of%20war.htm   http://www.cepr.net/Costs%20of%20a%20War.pdf

Potential Costs of a War Against Iraq Celeste Johnson Ward. Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) 20 November 2002 Summarises several estimates http://www.csis.org/features/iraq_costofwar.pdf


A conference held in Washington DC in November 2002. The documents include the conference transcript plus supporting briefings and updates.

After an Attack on Iraq: The Economic Consequences - Review and Update, March 2003 Laurence Meyer Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) March 13, 2003 http://www.csis.org/features/attackoniraq_background_update.pdf

An Attack on Iraq: The Military, Political, and Economic Consequences Scenario Briefing Revised March 2003 Anthony H. Cordesman Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) March 2003 (See the full transcript and summary of the conference at 12 and 21 November 2002, below) http://www.csis.org/features/attackoniraq_backgroundcord.pdf

After an Attack on Iraq: The Economic Consequences Conference Summary Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Laurence Meyer November 21, 2002 http://www.csis.org/features/attackoniraq_summary.pdf

After an Attack on Iraq: The Economic Consequences Full transcript of conference Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) The Workshop met in the CSIS Conference Room at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1800 K Street, N.W., Washington, D.C., at 9:00 a.m., John Hamre, President and CEO, CSIS, presiding. Present: John Hamre, President and CEO, CSIS; Jon Alterman, CSIS; Anthony Cordesman, CSIS, Arleigh Burke Chairholder; Robert Diclemente, Salomon Smith Barney; Bill Dudley, Goldman Sachs & ; Co.; Bob Ebel, CSIS; Herman Franssen, CSIS. This is the main document of the CSIS study and contains sections headed: Global Ramifications; Panel on Oil Production; U.S. and Global Economic Results; Financial Panel. The sections typically have one or more presentations followed by discussion. Interesting for the attitudes andpositions of participants as well as for the substantive discussion. 12 November 2002 PDF (957K) 216 pages http://www.csis.org/features/attackoniraq_fulltranscript.pdf


This study has the broadest span in terms of the kinds of economic impact it covers, though these are limited largely to the economy of the United States.

Iraq: The Economic Consequences of War William D. Nordhaus, New York Review of Books,  5 December 2002. Shorter html version without tables, but with an expanded bibliography http://www.nybooks.com/articles/15850

Summary of costs from the Nordhaus paper http://www.econ.yale.edu/~nordhaus/homepage/Table7.htm

The Economic Consequences of a War with Iraq William Nordhaus, 29 October 2002, revised Full pdf version (326K) http://www.econ.yale.edu/~nordhaus/iraq.pdf


Updated CBO Estimate of costs of conflict in Iraq, March 2003 Congressional Budget Office March 2003Included in An Analysis of the President's Budgetary Proposals for 2004 (See earlier CBO estimate, September 2002, below) PDF (1.2MB) ftp://ftp.cbo.gov/41xx/doc4129/03-25-AnalysisPresidentBudget-Final.pdf

Estimated Costs of a Potential Conflict with Iraq Congressional Budget Office September 2002 http://www.cbo.gov/showdoc.cfm?index=3822&sequence=0 (html)ftp://ftp.cbo.gov/38xx/doc3822/09-30-Iraq.pdf (pdf)ftp://ftp.cbo.gov/38xx/doc3822/09-30-Iraq.wpd (Wordperfect)

Bulleted summary version of the CBO report U.S. Gov Info/Resources http://usgovinfo.about.com/library/weekly/aairaqwarcost.htm

Assessing the Cost of Military Action Against Iraq:

Using Desert Shield/Desert Storm as a Basis for Estimates An Analysis by the House Budget Committee Democratic Staff House Budget Committee, Democratic Caucus (includes an introductory letterLindsey is in the Ball Park: A War on Iraq Could Cost $100 Billion to $200 Billionfrom Ranking Democratic Member John M. Spratt Jr.) September 23, 2002 http://www.house.gov/budget_democrats/analyses/spending/iraqi_cost_report.pdf

The Economic Costs of Going to War with Iraq Miriam Pemberton Foreign Policy in Focus delivered September 13, 2002 Congressional Briefing http://www.fpif.org/iraq/0209warimpact.html

The War on Terrorism, the World Oil Market and the U.S. Economy Analysis Paper #7, October 24, 2001 George L. Perry, Senior Fellow, Economic Studies, Brookings Institution Referred to by Nordhaus http://www.brook.edu/dybdocroot/views/papers/perry/20011024.pdf (fullversion, with charts and tables - pdf) http://www.brook.edu/views/papers/perry/20011024.htm

 (without charts or tables - html)

 Selected articles and news items Some of which may also deal with various scenarios. This is a selection made at the end of March-early April 2003. For fresh news items, go to the home websites of the following links or those listed above under Websites. Stock markets and the IMF appear to jump up and down according to the latest media reports from Iraq.

Wall Street euphoria proves short-livedBBC News 7 April, 2003 US shares have ended the day barely higher, after having surged wildly during the first few hours of trading. Overnight successes produced excitement on Wall Street and beyond, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up as much as 243 points early in the day. But it closed just 23 points, or 0.3%, higher, at 8,300, as investors paused to consider the lack of fundamental improvement in the economic outlook. "It's war related, but volume is somewhat muted," said Bob Basel of Salomon Smith Barney. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/2923457.stm

Markets surge after military advance BBC News 2 April 2003 Markets are still driven by war news. Stock markets in the US and Europe have risen sharply after coalition troop advances towards Baghdad raised hopes of a swift end to the conflict. In New York, the Dow Jones index rose sharply as soon as the Wall Street markets opened and ended the day 215 points - or 2.7% - higher at 8,285. .." http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/2908635.stm

Stock market a prisoner of war: advance stalls, awaiting good news from Iraq Malcolm Morrison Canadian Press31 March 2003            http://www.canada.com/national/story.asp?id={A5E91E03-87BB-450E-8E7F-8FF47697268D

Economy said unprepared for long war against Iraq Peter Morton    Financial Post   March 28, 2003Markets seek swift end: Airlines woes most visible effect; oil prices rising again. WASHINGTON The increasing prospect of a long war in Iraq could undermine frail investor confidence and threaten a global economic recovery, the International Monetary Fund said yesterday&

http://www.nationalpost.com/financialpost/story.html?id=%7B4EC0ED2A-406D-4EF 6-8C36-456A24B24CCD%7D

Duration of Iraq war sends stock markets lower, crude oil higher Malcolm Morrison Canadian Press Friday, March 28, 2003 http://www.canada.com/news/story.asp?id=%7B840AB105-C623-4600-8434-5F0D970EB 4FF%7D

War Threatens Economic Recovery, I.M.F. Says Timothy L. OBrien New York Times March 27, 2003 "Financial uncertainties related to the Iraqi war threaten to stymie a nascent global economic recovery, the International Monetary Fund said in a semiannual report released today. Horst Koehler, the I.M.F.'s managing director, also told the German magazine WirtschaftsWoche in an interview published today that "a global economic recession cannot be ruled out" if the Iraqi war proves to be a prolonged engagement..."  http://www.nytimes.com/2003/03/27/business/27CND-IMF.html?ei=5062&en=58f72d6833f55a38&ex=1049432400&partner=GOOGLE&pagewanted=print&position=top

War dents business travel Chris Isidore, CNN/Money March 27, 2003: NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Businesses are cutting back on travel in response to the war in Iraq, and they're giving employees more freedom to just refuse to travel altogether. http://money.cnn.com/2003/03/27/pf/saving/travel/war_travel/index.htm

Slogging toward recession? By Justin Lahart, CNN/Money March 27, 2003 Worries that the war could last months, not weeks, lead to double-dip fears... NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - By most accounts the U.S. coalition's war against Iraq is going well. Troops have advanced quickly, casualties have been low and the threat to the country's oil fields has been pretty much removed. http://money.cnn.com/2003/03/26/markets/wareconomy/index.htm

Koehler sees war-linked recession CNN Money March 26, 2003 IMF director says global recession possible if war pushes up oil prices, hits consumer sentiment BERLIN (Reuters) The International Monetary Fund has become more downbeat about global economic prospects because of the war in Iraq, according to an interview with its managing director, Horst Koehler, published Wednesday& http://money.cnn.com/2003/03/26/news/international/imf_recession.reut/

IMF warning adds to recession fears over Iraq Alister Bull Reuters 26 March 2003 Frankfurt (Reuters) A prolonged war in Iraq could trip the world into recession, the IMF warned on Wednesday, as signs mounted that the conflict is hitting economic sentiment. http://in.news.yahoo.com/030326/137/22ndn.html

Stocks worried by war Mild selling pushes markets to a modest decline amid concern about the pace of war in Iraq. March 26, 2003: 5:52 PM EST By Alexandra Twin, CNN/Money Staff Writer http://money.cnn.com/2003/03/26/markets/markets_newyork/index.htm

Consumer confidence falls Closely watched measure of consumer sentiment, critical for broader economy, slips again. Mark Gongloff CNN Money March 25, 2003 NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - The confidence of U.S. consumers, whose spending fuels more than two-thirds of the nation's economy, dipped slightly in the days before a U.S.-led war with Iraq, a research group said Tuesday. http://money.cnn.com/2003/03/25/news/economy/consumer/index.htm

What Economic Price This War? by James K. Galbraith Boston Globe March 24, 2003 "RECENTLY AS we debated the war now underway in Iraq, seven Nobel laureates joined 150 other US economists (including myself) to call for careful consideration of the costs of war in Iraq. When economists talk about costs, what do we mean? First, we mean budget costs -- for gasoline, equipment, and explosives -- that begin at about $100 billion. This figure is based on an assumption that the war goes well. It the assumption is wrong, the numbers will go up fast. The history of warfare -- from Europe in 1914 to Vietnam in the 1960s -- is littered with gross underestimates of budget costs..." http://www.commondreams.org/views03/0324-02.htm

War is main economic threat NABE survey shows how economists rank war, federal spending, deficit in terms of threat to economy. Reuters March 24, 2003 WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. war against Iraq and the possibility of terror attacks on American soil pose the biggest threats to the U.S. economy, according to a survey of economists released Monday. In a canvass of 223 business economists conducted before the United States and Britain launched military action against Iraq, 41 percent tagged war and terror attacks as the main risks the still-struggling U.S. economy faces, the National Association for Business Economics said. http://money.cnn.com/2003/03/24/news/economy/war_survey.reut/index.htm

NABE Panel: War and Domestic Security Are Biggest Threats Facing U.S. Economy National Association for Business Economics (NAB) 24 March 2003"Geopolitical risks - war in Iraq and domestic security - currently constitute the biggest threat to the U.S. economy, according to the latest canvass of NABE members on policy issues," says Tim O'Neill, President of NABE and Chief Economist, BMO Financial Group..." http://www.nabe.com/publib/pol/03/pol0303.html

Which Companies Will Put Iraq Back Together? By Diana B. Henriques, New York Times 23 March 2003 http://www.nytimes.com/2003/03/23/business/23REBU.html?ei=5007&en=fdb44169aa212270&ex=1049000400&partner=USERLAND&pagewanted=print&position=top

Alert - War's impact on business Economist Intelligence Unit (summary) 21 March 2003 http://riskwire.eiu.com/index.asp?layout=display_article&doc_id=245916

Halliburton Makes a Killing on Iraq War Pratap Chatterjee CorpWatch.org 20 March 2003 CorpWatch has learned that VP Cheney's former company has a $multi-million contract servicing troops in Kuwait. This special series looks at how Halliburton profits from the Iraq war, now that bombs are falling on Baghdad. http://www.corpwatch.org/issues/PID.jsp?articleid=6008

Putin aide says Iraq war damaging to Russian economy in longer term Interfax 20 March 2003 http://www.cdi.org/russia/249-10.cfm

How much will war cost? Mark Gongloff, CNN/Money March 19, 2003 The tab for invading, occupying and rebuilding Iraq could be hundreds of billions of dollars [Boxed and bulleted version with good links] http://money.cnn.com/2003/03/17/news/economy/war_cost/index.htm

Fed says view cloudy Central bank holds rates unchanged, promises 'heightened surveillance' of U.S. economy. CNN Money March 18, 2003 NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - The Federal Reserve held a key short-term interest rate unchanged Tuesday, but expressed uncertainty about the health of the U.S. economy on the eve of war with Iraq. http://money.cnn.com/2003/03/18/news/economy/fed/index.htm

Stocks at a time of war and peace Justin Lahart, CNN/Money March 17, 2003 Think the outbreak of war is a good time to invest? Think again. http://money.cnn.com/2003/02/18/markets/warreact/index.htm

Prospect for war and the economy: two sources of consumer uncertainty ANN ARBOR, Mich."Consumer confidence declined in February due to growing apprehensions about the prospects of war with Iraq as well as the possibility of domestic terrorism..." 3 March 2003 http://www.umich.edu/news/Releases/2003/Mar03/r030303.html

IMF head: No shock from Iraq war CNN Money February 15, 2003 World recession not a danger if war erupts over Iraq arms issues, says Koehler. FRANKFURT (Reuters) - International Monetary Fund head Horst Koehler said in an interview with a German newspaper released on Saturday that he did not believe the world economy will fall into recession as a result of a war in Iraq. http://www.google.ch/search?q=cache:c6ej2KoTmksC:money.cnn.com/2003/02/15/news/international/bc.economy.imf.iraq.reut/+IMF+IraQ&hl=en&ie=UTF-8

Greenspan: Iraq war threatens U.S. economy Shihoko Goto UPI 11 February 2003 WASHINGTON, Feb. 11 (UPI) -- "A potential war against Iraq is the single biggest threat to economic health, Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan cautioned members of the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday..." http://www.washtimes.com/upi-breaking/20030211-110038-7792r.htm

Price of war: Long or short, some economic shock waves ahead for U.S. John Gallagher Free Press February 8, 2003 http://www.freep.com/news/nw/econ8_20030208.htm

The cost of war Three sobering assessments about the economic ramifications of war with Iraq. Kathleen Hays, CNN/Money February 6, 2003: http://money.cnn.com/2003/02/05/commentary/column_hays/hays/index.htm

The myth of the war economy Markets loathe uncertainty and volatility. Conflict brings both Joseph Stiglitz The Guardian January 22, 2003 http://politics.guardian.co.uk/comment/story/0,9115,879724,00.html

An Iraq war's economic toll Early estimates put the total cost as high as $200 billion, but economists say it's hard to figure the actual impact. By Ron Scherer | Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor September 26, 2002 edition http://www.csmonitor.com/2002/0926/p03s01-usec.html

 Copyright David Arnott, IPB  2003.  For fair use only/ pour usage équitable seulement .