Centre for Research on Globalisation
Centre de recherche sur la mondialisation


Bush will lose in Iraq

by W.L. Floyd

Online Journal at www.onlinejournal.com 31 Dec 2004
www.globalresearch.ca   6 January 2005

The URL of this article is: http://globalresearch.ca/articles/FLO501A.html

According to UN Weapons Inspector Scott Ritter, Saddam Hussein's Mukhabarat (secret police) devised a plan to defeat the US Occupation. Dismissed by Bush Medal of Peace winner Jerry Lewis Paul Bremer immediately after the fall of Baghdad, the Mukhabarat are conducting a classical guerrilla war against US troops. The plan was created before the invasion.

The first guerrilla war was fought by the American colonists against the Imperial British Army. When our founding fathers faced British troops head on, they were mostly defeated. Instead, they shot at lines of parading Red Coats from behind trees. This was considered "unsportsman-like," if not "uncivilized" by the Brits. But it worked. Worked ingeniously.

Guerrilla tactics were used by Chinese patriots against Japanese invaders during World War II. Guerrilla tactics also defeated the most powerful army in the world, when the US interfered in the civil war in Vietnam.

Guerrilla war involves a simple strategy. Hit the invaders at their weakest point. After initial attacks, surround 50 occupiers using 500 guerrillas. Later, overwhelm 1,000 invaders with 10,000 rebels. Key to all guerrilla wars: never fight the stronger invader head on, mano a mano.

Insurgents attacked a car carrying five election officials in broad daylight on Baghdad's busy Haifa Street.  Thirty guerrillas hurled hand grenades and fired machine guns. A police official said that the ferocity of the clashes prevented the police from nearing the area. The attackers set fire to the Election vehicle, and wandered through the streets firing weapons into the air.

The key here is the 30 guerrillas. After individual suicide bombers, and IEDs, now a rebel force of 30 in broad daylight, the American military should begin to expect guerrilla attacks numbering 100 and 500 rebels soon. Later in 2005, the US military could see 10,000-100,000 rebels.

The deadly suicide attack on the Mosul mess hall last week was an "inside job" carried out by rebels, newly hired by the Iraqi armed forces, according to Asia Times Online. Responsibility for the suicide bombing was claimed by Jaish Ansar al-Sunnah (JAAS).

Sources said there are strong tribal connections between the fresh, new Iraqi armed forces and the Mosul rebels. These tribal alliances allowed them to carry out the most devastating attack on US troops since the Spring 2003 invasion.

Bush and Rumsfeld claim the insurgents' strategy is to disrupt next month's elections, but the resistance says it has a different agenda. Nada al-Rubaiee, of the central committee of the Iraqi Patriotic Alliance said, "Everybody in the resistance is agreed on one thing: we want freedom from foreign occupying forces and their puppets."

Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, Turkey's founding president, used to motivate his demoralized troops by holding a sword in one hand and a Koran in the other. He raised the slogans of jihad against the invading British and French armies. In Iraq, the secular, socialist, and Arab-nationalist Baath Party has the same strategy.

The real forces behind the resistance movement are what Iraqi Prime Minister Alawi recently referred to as "Saddam loyalists, and the remnants of the Baath Party." The Baath Party's political wings are active in London, Paris, Syria, Saudi Arabia and Jordan, while its security committees and military wings are in Iraq fighting the US occupation.

350,000 Iraqi Army Soldiers, and 3 Million Armed Baath Party Members Are Lying in Wait

The Iraqi guerrilla movement numbers over 50 independent cells. There is no charismatic resistance leader, and no drive for unity of the different cells. Among the members of the guerilla cadres, there are former fighters from Saddam's regime, religious and tribal leaders, as well as local big shots, and even gang leaders. The strength of the guerrillas is estimated at about 20,000 rebels. The US military has eliminated dozens of resistance cadres. But because of the 100,000 "accidental" civilian killings, together with countless civilians tortured at Abu Graib prison, many thousands of Iraqis victims have been pushed into the opposition.

The top 12 guerrilla groups are: Ansar al-Islam (based in the Kurdish area, and friendly to Iran); Ansar al-Sunnah (Mosul mess hall, and also kidnapped and killed 12 Nepalese 8/23/04); the Khalid bin al-Walid brigade (probably kidnapped and assassinated the Italian journalist Enzo Baldoni, 8/04); the Assadullah brigades; the Saladin Front of the Iraqi Islamic Resistance; the Sayf Allah al-Maslu brigades (conducted dozens of operations against US forces in the Niwi province); the Black Banner Group (a Sunni movement active in Falluja); and the Islamic Army in Iraq (which released Iranian consul Feredion Jahani, as well as the two French journalists).

Insurgents from the Mujahadeen Army, and the Mutassim Bellah Brigade kidnapped several contractors from a company called the Sandi Group. They said they would kill them if Sandi did not leave Iraq. Chad Knauss, the Sandi deputy chief operating officer, declined to comment. Sandi, based in Washington, employs 7,000 in Iraq.

The most dangerous cadre is Jaish Muhammad (JM). JM is notoriously responsible for the August 2003 attack against the United Nations headquarters in Baghdad. JM has also been quite active in Falluja fighting U.S. forces. The Al Tawhid wal Jihad, the alleged Abu Mussab al-Zarqawi's terrorist cadre, is comprised of between 1,000-1,500 fighters, a third of whom are foreigners. This movement is divided into seven zones: Mosul, Anbar, Baghdad, Samara, Al Diayli, Al Qum, and Falluja.

The suicide attacks in Iraq since March 2003 have killed more than 700 people. This is more than were killed in Israel in four years (475 victims in 112 attacks). The guerrilla cells have kidnapped more than 150 foreigners. Most have been sold for ransom, but 28 were killed by their abductors.

Bush and Rumsfeld only recently and reluctantly raised the U.S. troop level to 150,000.

According to experts, there were 25,000 Mukhabarat agents before the invasion. The unemployed Iraqi Army numbers 350,000. Plus there are 3,000,000 armed Baath Party faithful lying in wait.

Bush and Rumsfeld can only lose in Iraq.

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