Centre for Research on Globalisation
Centre de recherche sur la mondialisation
There is not much joy this month in seeing that events over the last year have unfolded exactly the way I said they would. Having just returned from my 25th and 26th lectures since last November in New Haven, Conn. and at nearby Wesleyan University, I look back and see that for seven months I have been publicly stating that we would be invading Iraq by fall 2002.
I see that since last December, and in every lecture since my first at Portland State University, I have said clearly and unequivocally that we are witnessing a sequential war to control the largest reserves on a planet that is running out of oil.
I look back at our economic analyses and the two warnings we published on Sept. 9, 2001 and July 8, 2002 and see that the U.S economy is behaving exactly the way we predicted it would behave. And from our stories last month on Iraq and Saudi Arabia I see politics being played as a kind of theater of the absurd, as all of the pieces fall into place for a swift invasion of Iraq and a likely simultaneous occupation of Saudi Arabia's oil fields.
And there is no glee at all in the fact that, as we had clearly stated as early as mid-September of last year, that Afghanistan, which had virtually no opium growing on Sept. 11, is once again the world's leading producer. The great heroin epidemic we predicted is now flooding across Russia and Western Europe.
I note with little satisfaction that plans for mass vaccinations are moving ahead even as the federal government announces on the one hand a plan for "voluntary" immunization of the population within days of an alert, while at the same time pushing MEHPA (The Model Emergency Health Powers Act) through state legislatures. MEHPA would make it a crime -- possibly a felony -- to refuse those same "voluntary" vaccinations. And the punishment would be carried out by the states.
And a recent AP story headlined "Evidence Contradicts Bush 9-11 Denial," following on the heels of dramatic testimony by the charismatic and eloquent 9-11 widow Kristen Breitweiser, along with ever more damning revelations in the joint House Senate 9-11 intelligence committee have proved that FTW's allegations a year ago of foreknowledge were more than justified. Strange, isn't it, that it has now been classified as to what the president was told before the attacks? If he knew what we now know the intelligence agencies knew, he is at the very least a proven and untrustworthy liar. Bush's known actions before, during and since the attacks are impeachable offenses. Perhaps some brave member of Congress will ultimately take to the floor and say so.
Anything is possible as the economy approaches a near-certain meltdown this October, which may well see the Dow below 6000 after devastating third quarter earnings reports become official and the explosion of a $50 trillion derivatives bubble occurs. I can see no better combination of factors than a bloody war, threats of or actual terrorist attacks, and draconian health legislation that will allow for the immediate confiscation of property and the uncontested quarantine of anyone as convenient methods to control an angry population that may soon be going hungry and cold. President Bush has made it clear that he wants the Homeland Security Act -- with all of its suppressive powers -- signed before the Iraqi invasion and, as of Oct. 1, we will have the Northern Command in place that will place both Mexican and Canadian troops under U.S. command.
There has been some hope that dramatic last ditch efforts in the U.N. and elsewhere, together with an increasing number of significant protests both in the U.S. and Europe might derail the plans for war. They may actually delay the invasion for a short while, but that's all. A wise analyst will follow the troops rather than the rhetoric. The massive buildup for the invasion has continued unabated. These troops cannot remain so heavily forward-deployed for long without being used. Recent convenient deployments to Yemen and Djibouti only confirm my previously-stated suspicions that Saudi Arabia is just as much a target as Iraq.
The Asia Times, in a story published Sept. 30, also confirms the position taken by FTW about eight weeks ago that the move against Iraq and Saudi Arabia is a move to break the back of OPEC and drastically reduce prices by increasing production from the only two countries in the world that can open oil taps wider. This position was also noted on a Sept. 28 Fox News show by former CIA Director James Woolsey, who has had a habit of addressing FTW themes in interviews. Woolsey noted that Iraq is currently exporting only 1 million barrels of oil a day and that this could be increased by 3- to 4 million barrels per day as a price "control" measure. When asked if Saddam might scorch the earth and attempt to destroy his oilfields Woolsey replied, "Saddam is capable of anything." He then implied that the U.S. was prepared for that contingency by recalling that Saddam had tried that tactic in 1991, and the U.S. had quickly restored production. "But we could do the same thing again," said Woolsey and "get the fields online quicker than anyone thought."
As the invasion plans appear more and more unstoppable, the heavy shuttle diplomacy taking place in the Arab world between Egypt, Syria, Saudi Arabia and other Muslim states indicates that the OPEC/Muslim world sees the plan also. They want to slow the U.S. down and prevent the invasion. While staving off an inevitable collapse of the U.S. economy by drastically reducing oil prices (including heating oil and fuel for power generation) just before winter, the Bush Administration would also gut the national incomes of most countries in the region. Our immediate economic instability would be immediately transferred to the Middle East. The Saudi monarchy, awaiting the imminent passing of King Fahd, must see this clearly. The civil war between Princes Abdullah and Sultan that looms from that event alone might turn into anarchy if the Saudi government is suddenly unable to meet the domestic financial obligations that keep it in place.
What seems clear to me now is that the administration has thought through all of these contingencies and has prepared for them. The administration's arrogance is as frightening as its power. I have recently learned from trusted sources on Capitol Hill that the Armed Services committees have quietly begun planning for a reinstitution of the draft. That harkens back to my June 2000 essay, "When the Children of the Bull Market Begin to Die." The eventual drafting of our youth is to me as much a certainty as anything else I have written about thus far. Reserve units, now having been called up for more than a year, are nearing the breaking point. A bloody and protracted war -- something the rest of the world may now be hoping for -- will overextend our military, and the draft will be essential as the criminals occupying the Executive Branch desperately attempt to make their grasp meet their reach. I think that there is better than a 50-50 chance that nuclear weapons will be used on the battlefield by either the U.S. or Israel within the next six months.
Russia and China wait as close to the sidelines as possible. China will be the ultimate endgame as it competes with growing demand for dwindling supplies of energy. And should the U.S. stumble, China will exert herself even more on the world scene.
I am reminded of where this country was in 1967-68 as the U.S. government, faced with massive domestic riots over civil rights and anti-war protests, found that it had 550,000 troops overseas and not enough at home to keep the peace. It was then that the assassinations of MLK and RFK became both inevitable and necessary. As yet, no leader of such stature had emerged, and I don't know if one will. Rep. Cynthia McKinney of Georgia, ousted by a clever and well executed plan, was one hope. But the ruling elite's science of population and political control has come a long way since the 1960s.
Most of our critics, notably David Corn of The Nation and self-anointed media critic Norman Solomon, have gone silent as both our reporting and predictions have been completely validated by events. And both Corn and Solomon have also revealed themselves to be agents of the U.S. State Department run by Colin Powell and career covert operative and criminal Richard Armitage. Last November in a story published on Alternet Corn wrote, "I had been dispatched to Trinidad by the U.S. State Department to conduct a two-day seminar on investigative reporting for local journalists (your tax dollars at work!)..." And just recently Norman Solomon of the Institute for Public Accuracy traveled with sitting congressman Nick Rahall and others on what CNN described as an official delegation to meet with officials of the Iraqi government.
I make these points because it seems to me that the learning curve of activism has not matched that of the oppressor. It is true that the Internet may prove itself to be the saving grace of mankind. But I look back at all the dedicated activists of the last 30 years and ask what have they accomplished? Human rights are worse. The environment is worse. Globalization is batting near 1000. Military spending has skyrocketed. And there seems to be nothing that can stop the empire's progression. (That is what I labeled it in January 2001).
Visionaries like Catherine Austin Fitts (www.solari.com) continue to demonstrate how our government is not a government but a criminal enterprise run for the benefit of corporations and syndicates. Her writing about alternative economic models that succeed without killing attracts far too little attention. And while FTW is growing, we are constantly short of funds as we continue to provide the most accurate reporting, analysis and predictions in the marketplace of ideas.
This is all because most of the people in this country still avoid the hard realities and try to cure symptoms rather than the causes of this great illness that envelops our country. Just recently I was in Washington, D.C. and attended several seminars at the Congressional Black Caucus. One seminar, on COINTELPRO, the FBI's domestic suppression operation of the '60s and '70s, featured Martin Luther King III who said, "We are a sick nation. Every day we are getting sicker."
I could not agree more.
But Julius Caesar has crossed the little river called the Rubicon with his legions and is heading toward Rome. The Republic is dead. And throughout human history it was at these times, when answers were hard to find and darkness seemed unstoppable, that a part of the human spirit persisted -- "I will not give up. I will not go quietly. I will not surrender." It was at these moments that faith demonstrated its true power, that courage found itself in the heart, and that the human race justified its existence in the universe.
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